What strength of schedule means in the NFL
Strength of schedule in the NFL describes the relative difficulty of a team’s 17 games, based on the combined performance of all opponents. It is influenced by each opponent’s prior season record, playoff seeding, and adjustments for home and road games. While not an official statistic published by the league, strength of schedule is widely used by analysts, executives, and media to contextualize win-loss records, evaluate playoff positioning, and compare competitive environments across teams. This article explains how schedule strength is calculated, how it shaped the 2019 season, and why it remains a useful explanatory variable for long-term performance.
How strength of schedule is calculated and reported
There is no single official formula, but the most common approaches rely on point differential, winning percentage, and whether games were at home or away. Many calculations use each opponent’s previous season record as a baseline, then refine expectations with current year results. Some methods weight division games more heavily, since intraconference matchups tend to be more predictable. The result is a relative number that can be compared across teams and seasons, although small variations between models are normal. For 2019, the most frequently cited sources include Football Outsiders, NFL.com, and ESPN, each presenting slightly different weights and adjustments.
Core components of most calculations
- Opponent performance in the prior season, including wins, losses, and margin of victory.
- Home and road splits, recognizing that playing away adds difficulty.
- Divisional versus interconference balance, since division games are not always equal in difficulty.
- Injuries and roster changes that may shift expectations midseason.
Notable features of the 2019 NFL schedule
The 2019 schedule was shaped by typical rotation rules, cross-flex adjustments, and the competitive landscape of the 2018 season. Several marquee matchups and division pairings created stretches of games that were widely regarded as tougher than average, while other teams experienced relatively gentle road swings. Understanding these structural factors helps explain why certain records appeared more impressive or vulnerable after the fact.
Interconference and divisional balance
Each team plays two games against every team in its division, one at home and one on the road, for a total of 14 intraconference games. The remaining three games come from the team’s own conference, and two are fixed interconference opponents based on position in the standings. In 2019, some divisions contained notably stronger contenders, which raised the strength of schedule for teams in those groups. Interconference games often created more variance, since performance in tightly contested matchups can fluctuate year to year.
Impact of 2018 performance on 2019 matchups
Because strength of schedule depends heavily on prior-season records, teams that reached the 2018 playoffs carried different expectations into 2019. Wild-card and divisional-round teams formed a core group of tougher opponents, while nonplayoff teams were generally counted as easier wins. This created a gradient across the league, with some front offices facing notably more challenging early-season test than others.
2019 strength of schedule by team overview
Across the league, strength of schedule varied widely in 2019. Teams that faced multiple playoff teams in both division and conference games tended to rank at the top of schedule difficulty metrics, while teams with lighter nonplayoff opponents often appeared toward the bottom. The table below summarizes verified schedule difficulty tiers based on widely reported sourcing, showing how each group reflected the competitive environments teams operated in during the season.
2019 schedule difficulty tiers
| Tier | Representative teams | Key characteristics |
|---|---|---|
| Very difficult | BAL, LAC, SF, KC, NE | Multiple 2018 playoff teams and strong division opponents |
| Difficult | GB, SEA, PIT, CLE, IND | Several playoff-caliber opponents and tough road stretches |
| Moderate | PHI, DAL, NO, MIA, LV | Mixed slates with balanced playoff and nonplayoff teams |
| Easier | ARI, DET, NYG, NYJ, CIN | More nonplayoff opponents and favorable division alignment |
| Least difficult | ATL, CAR, TEN, JAX, CHI | Light schedules from nonplayoff 2018 teams |
Why strength of schedule matters for analysis and evaluation
Strength of schedule functions as a context variable rather than a direct measure of team quality. A tough schedule can inflate win totals when a team performs near expectation, while an easy schedule can make modest performance appear more impressive. Analysts often adjust records by schedule difficulty to compare teams on a level playing field, especially when evaluating playoff odds or making roster comparisons. It is particularly useful for understanding parity, competitive balance, and the narrative around underperformance or overachievement.
Adjusting metrics for schedule difficulty
Advanced metrics such as DVOA or EPA often incorporate schedule strength adjustments, allowing analysts to compare players and teams across different competitive backdrops. When projecting future performance or making strategic decisions, staff may use these adjusted figures to assess how much margin for error a team truly has. For fans and media, translating win-loss records into schedule-adjusted terms provides a clearer view of underlying competitiveness.
Common questions about 2019 NFL strength of schedule
Because strength of schedule is calculated retroactively using prior results, shifts later in the season can alter perceived difficulty. Media coverage and analytic models may update rankings as the year progresses, which can create confusion about which version is authoritative. The following points clarify frequent points of uncertainty and align expectations with standard practice.
Frequently asked questions
- Is strength of schedule an official NFL stat? No. It is an analytical construct used to contextualize performance, not an official box score element.
- Can a team change its schedule midseason? Yes, through cross-flex scheduling, which may alter perceived difficulty based on opponent outcomes.
- Does strength of schedule affect playoff seeding directly? Not by rule, but better records driven by tougher schedules can influence positioning and tiebreakers.
- Why do different sources show different rankings? Models vary in weighting prior records, home and road games, and division versus interconference matchups.
- How useful is strength of schedule for predicting future performance? It improves context but does not guarantee outcomes; roster changes and injuries remain significant variables.
How to interpret schedule difficulty responsibly
Treating strength of schedule as one lens among many helps avoid overstated narratives. Pairing schedule metrics with in-game film, roster depth, and injury reports leads to more accurate assessments. Teams that perform consistently well across varied opponents often demonstrate resilient preparation and adaptable coaching, while volatile schedules can mask underlying strengths or weaknesses.
Conclusion on 2019 NFL strength of schedule
The 2019 season featured meaningful variation in schedule difficulty across the league, reflecting the prior year’s competitive outcomes and the structure of the NFL calendar. While no single number captures the full complexity of a team’s path, understanding these patterns enriches analysis and supports more nuanced conversations about performance. For long-term evaluation, strength of schedule remains a valuable component of the broader analytical toolkit.