What Was Trump's Approval Rating in 2018?
Donald Trump’s approval rating in 2018 reflected a highly polarized electorate, steady partisan divides, and responses to policy wins, controversies, and the midterm election cycle. This verified overview synthesizes major pollster findings, methodological considerations, and events that typically shaped fluctuations in public approval during the year. Ratings remained closely split between supporters and critics, with modest shifts tied to headline news rather than lasting realignments.
Key Polling Sources and Methods
In 2018, approval of Trump was measured by a set of established pollsters using probability-based samples and varied modes (live-answer telephone and online panels). Understanding each organization’s methodology, sample frame, and mode of interviewing helps explain differences in reported approval and the size of partisan gaps. Variability was typically within the margin of error across reputable firms, even when point estimates diverged.
Major Polling Organizations
- Gallup: Daily and weekly tracking with large-sample methods; emphasizes mode and context adjustments.
- Morning Consult and Politico: Online, opt-in probability panels with rolling recruitment.
- Monmouth University: Live-phone methodology; typically shows narrow partisan gaps.
- YouGov: Survey experiments and modeling to reduce nonresponse bias; often featured in media aggregations.
- Pew Research Center: rigorous random-sample telephone protocols; focuses on broader demographic balance.
- Quinnipiac University: Live-phone designs; frequently highlights demographic and intensity differences.
- CNN/SSRS and NBC/Wall Street Journal: Professional mixed-mode studies with strong sampling standards.
Notable Trends and Partisan Gaps in 2018
Throughout 2018, Trump’s approval rating showed modest fluctuations around the mid-upper 40s among registered voters for Democrats and high-30s to low-40s among Republicans, producing typical partisan gaps of 30–40 points. Disapproval often moved in response to national security events, policy milestones, or prominent controversies, while baseline partisan identification remained the strongest predictor of approval.
| Date or Period | Approval (Registered Voters) | Disapproval (Registered Voters) | Net Rating | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January–February 2018 (early year) | 43–45% | 51–55% | –8 to –12 | Government shutdown and early policy pushes. |
| Spring–Summer 2018 (pre-midterms) | 40–44% | 53–57% | –10 to –14 | Immigration and trade remained salient. |
| September–November 2018 (midterms) | 40–43% | 54–58% | –12 to –16 | Higher turnout among more disapproving constituencies. |
| December 2018 | 41–44% | 54–58% | –12 to –15 | Year-end assessments and holiday surveys. |
Important Methodological Context
- Partisan gaps often appear larger in online, opt-in samples than in live-phone studies, reflecting differences in sample composition.
- Approval among strong partisans tends to be more stable; movement is more common among independents and weakly partisan respondents.
- Question wording, rotation of approve/disapprove, and explicit mention of Congress or the economy can influence net ratings.
Events and Policy Milestones in 2018
Several events plausibly affected short-term movement in Trump’s approval during 2018, including trade negotiations and tariffs, First Summit with Kim Jong-un, confirmation of Supreme Court and appellate judges, handling of immigration at the border and the family separation debate, and ongoing investigations related to Special Counsel matters. While these produced measurable bumps in national polls, they did not typically reconfigure the underlying partisan structure of approval.
Midterm Election Implications
In the lead-up to the November 2018 midterms, approval and disapproval trends were closely watched as predictors of seat change and turnout. Historically, the president’s party tends to fare worse when net disapproval is negative and intensity is higher among opponents. In practice, Democrats gained the House, with patterns of mobilization and base enthusiasm aligning more closely with disapproval and perceived stakes than with a dramatic shift in Trump’s overall rating.
How to Interpret Year-to-Year Changes in Approval
Comparing 2018 to other years underscores that approval ratings are heavily anchored by partisanship and that volatility is often concentrated around reactions to events rather than slow drifts in sentiment. Methodological differences between pollsters and changes in the political news cycle can also create apparent differences in trajectory. Evaluating averages over windows of weeks, rather than day-to-day movements, yields a more durable picture.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What was Trump’s highest approval rating in 2018? Across major polls, quarterly highs were generally in the mid-upper 40s among registered voters, often following apparent policy wins or national security developments.
- Did disapproval ever fall below 50% in 2018? In most national polls, disapproval stayed at or above 50%, producing persistent negative net ratings.
- How did independents view Trump in 2018? Independents were typically split or modestly negative; their movement in response to events contributed most to short-term fluctuations.
- Were 2018 ratings an outlier compared to similar points in a presidency? They were broadly consistent with patterns seen at analogous stages for recent presidents when adjusted for partisanship and polarization.
Why Polls Vary and What to Watch
Differences in mode (online vs. telephone), sample recruitment, and question order can produce non-trivial variation across estimates. For durable insights, focus on aggregated trends and avoid over-interpreting single polls. Going forward, key indicators to monitor include intensity of approval/disapproval, turnout intent among partisans, and issue salience around the economy, foreign policy, and institutional confidence.